Alex Caruso's modeled impact on OKC's net rating: +1.07 points per 48 minutes

A breakdown of Caruso's raw on-court net rating versus DataBaller's modeled player-impact score, and how his +1.07 rating factors into Oklahoma City's team power rating.

Published: September 23, 2026 · Figures as of September 23, 2026

Asked: What’s estimated impact of Alex Caruso in terms of impact on net rating ?

Caruso adds about +1.1 points per 48 minutes to OKC's margin, a modest but positive lineup impact

Two different reads answer "impact on net rating," and they say different things.

Raw on-court net rating. Over Oklahoma City's 56 games with Caruso last season (2025-2026), the Thunder outscored opponents by +17.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor (2,178 tracked possessions). That's an exact number, but it's a team signal keyed to him, not a measure of what he personally did — it also reflects the four teammates and the opponents on the floor at the same time, and OKC ran a historically strong lineup around him (Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Hartenstein, etc.).

DataBaller's modeled player impact. This is the number built to strip some of that out. It's a minutes-weighted regression that assigns each player a per-48-minute margin value relative to a league-average player, blending this season's box scores with last season's at reduced weight. Caruso's stored read: +1.07 points per 48 minutes, as of September 22, 2026, model version v1, with confidence 1.0 (based on 1,020 minutes this season plus 1,040 the season before). That ranks him 151st of 582 players graded — a positive, useful role player, not a star-level mover.

The registry is explicit that this individual number is unvalidated for ranking players (the same model has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander only 11th and Nikola Jokic 24th, because the fit spreads team quality across heavy-minute players under a zero prior). What it IS validated for is summing a lineup into a team strength rating: at his 15.9 minutes-per-game share of OKC's expected rotation, Caruso's +1.07 impact contributes +0.36 points to Oklahoma City's overall power rating of +13.2 — a small but real slice of the league's best-rated roster.

Confidence: High on the raw figures (both come straight from the stored data with full-season volume behind them); Medium on using the modeled +1.07 as a statement about Caruso specifically, since the model itself flags the individual number as a lineup ingredient rather than a validated player rating.