Angels' Run Differential Improved Over Last 15 Games, But Record Worsened
Despite scoring more and allowing only slightly more runs than the previous stretch, the Angels went 4-11 in their last 15 games after a 7-8 stretch, with four blowout wins masking a string of close losses.
Published: · Figures as of September 6, 2026
Asked: How have the Angeles' last 15 games compared with the 15 before?
The Angels have played better and lost more over their last 15 games
Their run production jumped sharply — from 2.80 runs a game to 4.33 — while run prevention held roughly steady (3.53 allowed to 3.73), yet the record actually got worse, from 7-8 in the prior stretch (August 4-19) to 4-11 in the most recent one (August 21-September 5). The underlying performance improved; the win column didn't follow.
The two windows, game for game:
| Window | Runs scored/g (runs per game) | Runs allowed/g (runs per game) |
|---|---|---|
| 8/4-8/19 | 2.80 | 3.53 |
| 8/21-9/5 | 4.33 | 3.73 |
- league average runs/g: 4.5 runs per game
What actually happened, game by game: the last 15 games (4-11) split into four blowout wins — 18-3 over Houston, 10-1 and 3-0 over the Yankees and Rangers — and eleven losses that averaged just 2.26 runs scored against 5.00 allowed, four of them by a single run. That combination is exactly why the run differential over the stretch actually flipped positive (+0.60 per game) while the record fell apart: a couple of laughers padded the run total, but the volume of close losses drove the win-loss line down. The prior 15-game window (7-8) was the mirror image — steadier, lower-scoring baseball with a slightly negative run margin.
Against the schedule: the recent opponents (Yankees, Phillies, Guardians, Rangers, Astros, Pirates) were, going in, a roughly average-scoring group (4.5 expected runs/game). The Angels' 3.73 runs allowed against them is about 0.92 runs a game better than those clubs' typical output — real run prevention, not just a soft schedule. Their own offense at 4.33 was almost exactly what that schedule would predict (4.5 expected), so the scoring bump reflects genuine improvement rather than facing weaker pitching.
This lines up with what Los Angeles' own sustainability read has been saying all year: as of today, the model puts the team's record about 9 wins behind what its season-long scoring margins support (team sustainability score 0.182, v1, September 6), flagging it as "record behind margins - expect recovery." The last 15 games are a smaller-scale version of that same pattern.
Confidence: medium. Fifteen games is a short window for either side of this, and the four blowout wins are doing a lot of the work in the run-differential number — strip them out and the offensive improvement looks more marginal than the topline number suggests.