Brewers vs. Dodgers: Misiorowski's arrival, and why L.A. still rates ahead
A year after the Dodgers' 2025 NLCS sweep, Milwaukee has a new ace in Jacob Misiorowski and a rebuilt rotation. DataBaller's ratings still put Los Angeles a shade ahead, with the Brewers favored only in Game 1 because of home field.
Published: · Figures as of October 10, 2026
Asked: What’s different about this Brewers team that could keep the Dodgers from knocking them out again?
Misiorowski changes the Brewers, but the Dodgers improved too
The biggest change is Jacob Misiorowski. He has a 1.80 ERA over 174⅔ innings and 252 strikeouts in 2026, after a 4.36 ERA over 66 innings in 2025. DataBaller's Power Rating still has the Dodgers a shade ahead of the Brewers, 1.59 runs a game to 1.34 against an average club (as of October 10, 2026). Milwaukee is a slight favorite only in Game 1, because of home field.
The 2025 sweep was lost on the mound and at the plate. The Dodgers won all four NLCS games, 15 runs to 4. Their starters (Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani) threw 28⅔ innings, allowed 2 earned runs and struck out 35. Milwaukee's four listed starters worked 8⅓ innings and struck out 7, because Aaron Ashby opened two of the games and went 1⅓ innings between them. The Brewers scored one run in each game. The Dodgers have eliminated Milwaukee in 2018, 2020 and 2025.
| Game date | Brewers (runs) | Dodgers (runs) |
|---|---|---|
| 10/13 | 1 | 2 |
| 10/14 | 1 | 5 |
| 10/16 | 1 | 3 |
| 10/17 | 1 | 5 |
- Brewers 2025 regular season, runs per game: 4.98 runs
The Brewers' staff is not the one that was swept. Peralta (176⅔ innings, 2.70 ERA in 2025) and Quintana started two of those four games, and both have left, along with Fedde. Misiorowski now anchors the rotation, and Woodruff (2.98 ERA in 45⅓ innings) is listed as returning October 11. The late-inning arms were already strong in 2025 and remain so: Hall 1.91 ERA, Uribe 1.97, Megill 2.63.
The lineup is deeper but has less power. Milwaukee scored 5.14 runs a game this season against 4.98 in 2025, and drew 668 walks against 564. Home runs fell to 154 from 166, and Yelich dropped from 29 homers and 103 RBI to 12 and 59. Turang (21 HR, 100 RBI), Contreras (94 RBI), Bauers (26 HR) and Chourio (.291, 25 HR) carry the run production now. The Dodgers hit 204 home runs, 50 more than Milwaukee.
The Dodgers are stronger on the mound. Tarik Skubal (4.6 WAR, 2.72 ERA) is the announced Game 1 starter and is not on the injury report. Yamamoto (2.53 ERA in 185 innings), Ohtani (1.79 in 85⅔) and Snell (1.90 in 42⅔) are all still in the rotation. The Dodgers are also better than they were in 2025, when they won 93 games.
| 2026 regular season | Brewers | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 103-59 | 100-62 |
| Runs scored per game | 5.14 | 4.94 |
| Runs allowed per game | 3.81 | 3.70 |
| Home runs | 154 | 204 |
| Wins their scoring supports (Team Sustainability) | 102.5 | 101.9 |
Neither record is flattered. Milwaukee's is 0.5 wins ahead of what its scoring supports, and Los Angeles's is 1.9 wins behind.
Game 1 is tomorrow, October 11, at 5:00 PM PDT in Milwaukee. DataBaller's Power Rating gives the Brewers 51.5% and a 0.16-run margin. The starters, Misiorowski and Skubal, are nearly even, with Milwaukee ahead by 0.02 runs.
Confidence: Medium. The two ratings sit 0.25 runs apart and rest on carried-over regular-season data. A Game 1 result, or news on Woodruff's return, would change this.