Henry-for-Robinson Trade: What Full-PPR Scoring Actually Costs You

A 2025 stat breakdown shows the Henry-Robinson gap in full PPR comes almost entirely from receiving work, not rushing, with draft market and role-stability data added for context.

Published: September 13, 2026 · Figures as of September 12, 2026

Asked: I've been offered Derrick Henry for Bijan Robinson in my fantasy league this season. It's full PPR. What would I gain or give up?

Trading Robinson for Henry trades about 5 PPR points a game for a bigger back with a much smaller receiving role

Under full PPR, you'd be selling a top-of-the-board back who averaged 21.69 fantasy points a game in 2025 to acquire one who averaged 16.44 — a gap of roughly 5.25 points per game (89.3 points over 17 games each), driven almost entirely by receiving work rather than rushing.

The 2025 season line (both played all 17 games)

Henry actually out-rushed Robinson (1,595 to 1,478 yards) and scored more on the ground (16 rushing TDs to 7) — as a runner, he was the more productive back. The whole gap is the receiving column: 79 catches to 15. That's exactly the scoring-format effect at work — in standard scoring the gap is only 1.49 points a game, in half-PPR it's 3.37, and in full PPR (what you're asking about) it widens to 5.25. The format you're playing is the one that rewards Robinson's role the most and Henry's the least.

What the market and the models say entering 2026

The PPR draft board has Robinson at overall rank 2 (ADP 2.47, $56 auction value) and Henry at rank 16 (ADP 16.66, $40 auction value) — a 14-spot gap, not draft-day noise. Both are almost universally rostered (99%+).

DataBaller's own reads (as_of today, confidence 1.0, computed from each player's closing 2025 stretch since neither team has played a 2026 game yet — Ravens and Falcons both open Sunday, September 13) add texture:

• Role stability (performance shift v2): Henry scored 0.39 — a stable, near-normal role, all rushing (his carries ticked up from an 18/game baseline to 21.25 late, but he has no meaningful receiving side). Robinson scored 0.85, well above the league median of 0.45 and close to the 75th percentile — his role moved, led by his target share nearly doubling (16.1% to 26.4% of Atlanta's targets) late in the year. This measures how much a role is in flux, not whether that's good; it doesn't say the expanded passing-game role holds.
• Sustainability (v2): Both backs are flagged "down" and sit below the 0.7 bar the model calls process-supported — Henry at 0.34, Robinson at 0.48. Henry's closing kick (134.4 scrimmage yards/game on 6.04 yards/touch, well above his own 97.7 ypg / 5.21 YPT baseline) reads as more inflated than Robinson's (150.3 ypg on 5.44 YPT vs. a 135.9 ypg / 4.79 YPT baseline).
• Scoring shift (v1): With no 2026 games logged yet, this is a read of the finished 2025 season rather than a games-ahead forecast. It leans "down" for both — more sharply for Henry (-16.11 expected yards/game versus his longer-run pace) than Robinson (-4.89) — consistent with Henry's finish looking more borrowed from a hot stretch.

Neither player is on the current injury report.

The trade-off, plainly

• You'd give up: the higher weekly PPR score by a real margin (about 5 points/game in 2025), a first-round-priced asset by the market's own board, and a running back eight years younger (Robinson turned 24 in January; Henry turned 32 in January) with a passing-game role that expanded late in the year.
• You'd gain: a back who was actually the better pure rusher last season and whose role, while more one-dimensional, has been the more stable of the two.

Confidence: High that Robinson was the stronger full-PPR asset in 2025 and remains the higher-priced one for 2026 — that's arithmetic on numbers already in front of us. Medium on how either performs once the season starts, since nothing here has been measured against a single 2026 snap yet.