Misiorowski's ERA Lead Is Real — But His BABIP Luck Isn't Built to Last
Misiorowski holds a genuine 1.73-to-2.06 ERA edge over Chris Sale with 28 games left, but DataBaller's sustainability model flags his .217 BABIP-against as well below his own .254 baseline — meaning the pace voters are projecting forward is the part most likely to slip.
Published: · Figures as of August 28, 2026
Asked: how would you respond to this: "I love advanced stats but we do have to remember that advanced stats are best used for projection and sustainability, not evaluating results. We’re close to the end of the season; if Misiorowski keeps on the pace he’s on he’s gonna sweep the award because his results are so much better, even if the peripheral stats are closer. For these awards, results are all that matter."
The "keeps this pace" assumption is the actual weak spot, not the results-first argument
You're right that awards are decided on what happened, not on a model's read of what should have happened - that's a fair distinction, and one we can't referee since we don't track how Cy Young voters actually weigh ERA against peripherals. But "if he keeps on the pace he's on" is itself a projection, and that's exactly the kind of claim a sustainability read is built to test. Right now it says the opposite of what you'd want if you're betting on the pace holding.
Today's results gap is real
Misiorowski's 1.73 ERA against Chris Sale's 2.06 is a genuine, current gap - 25 starts, 151 innings, for a Brewers team that has the best record in the league (83-51). Nothing about that is in question, and if the season ended today, that's the résumé.
But "keeps the pace" is where it gets shaky
DataBaller's sustainability model (v2, run through August 28) flags exactly this scenario for Misiorowski. Over his last 83 batted balls in play (July 20 - Aug 27), opponents are hitting .217 on balls in play against him, well below his own established two-year level of .254 - a gap of about 1.36 standard deviations. That scores him at 0.32 with a "down" regression direction: the model's read is that his batting-average-on-balls-in-play-against for the rest of the season should drift back up toward his own .254 baseline, which would cost him roughly 3 hits worth of results relative to how he's pitched lately. That's a moderate-confidence read (0.52), mainly because the sample is on the smaller side of what the model likes.
Sale's version of the same read is the opposite story: his window BABIP-against (.291) sits close to his own .302 baseline, a mild -0.4 SD, and the model scores that 0.80 (stable) at a stronger 0.69 confidence. His results and his process agree; Misiorowski's currently don't.
So the argument isn't "peripherals should replace results for the award" - it's that the specific prediction "current results hold if the pace continues" is the part the model actively disagrees with. If it's right, the ERA gap you're pointing to should narrow some over what's left, not stay fixed.
There's still real season left to test it
Milwaukee has 28 games remaining, running through September 27 - not a token stretch. That's enough runway for Misiorowski to get several more starts, which is exactly the sample the sustainability read is about: if his BABIP-against reverts as the model expects, his ERA moves up toward his own 2.10 FIP; if it doesn't, the "down" call was wrong for this case and his results-based edge holds or grows.
Confidence: Medium. The results gap today is unambiguous; the sustainability signal behind the "will it hold" question is real but built on 83 balls in play at 0.52 confidence, and neither of us has any way to see how Cy Young voters would actually split results versus process if the numbers land close.