Patriots at Bills: Power Rating says toss-up, books make Buffalo 6.5-7 favorite
DataBaller's carried-over 2025 rating has New England winning at Buffalo by 0.19 points, while eight books price the Bills at 72.58% to 74.49%. The gap comes down to 2026 form, a soft Bills schedule, injuries on both lines and Josh Allen's knee.
Published: · Figures as of October 3, 2026
Asked: How do the Patriots match up against their next opponent? What would matter most?
Power Rating says toss-up; books make Buffalo a 6.5- to 7-point favorite
DataBaller's Power Rating has the Patriots winning at Buffalo by 0.19 points, a 50.69% win probability (Bills 49.31%), for Sunday, October 4 at 10:00 AM PDT. That is the 1.54-point rating edge (5.03 to 3.49) less 1.35 points for Buffalo's home field. The rating is carried over from 2025 at medium confidence and has not absorbed any 2026 game, so it cannot see that New England is 1-2 and Buffalo is 3-0.
| Book | Bills win probability (%) |
|---|---|
| DraftKings | 72.58 |
| Caesars | 73.35 |
| Fanatics | 73.42 |
| BetRivers | 73.49 |
| BetMGM | 73.89 |
| Kalshi | 74.23 |
| FanDuel | 74.34 |
| Polymarket | 74.49 |
- DataBaller Power Rating: Bills 49.31%: 49.31 %
The 2026 results favor Buffalo, with a soft schedule behind them. The table is regular-season 2026 through three games.
| Measure | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Points scored per game | 12.0 | 33.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.0 | 26.0 |
| Turnovers | 8 | 5 |
| Sacks by the defense | 7 | 9 |
Buffalo's wins came against Houston (0-3), Detroit (2-1) and the Chargers (0-3). New England's 6-35 loss at Jacksonville accounts for 35 of its 51 points allowed. Its other two games were a 10-13 loss at Seattle and a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh.
New England's passing game is the first thing to watch. The Patriots have one passing touchdown on 86 attempts and 593 net passing yards. Drake Maye has 585 yards and 1 touchdown in three games. Buffalo allows 26.0 points a game, so the defense is beatable, but the Patriots have scored more than 20 points in none of their three games. They also carry the higher turnover count, 8 to 5.
The offensive line is thin against Greg Rousseau. He has 6 of Buffalo's 9 sacks. Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten are on injured reserve, and Morgan Moses is questionable. Da'Metrius Weatherspoon signed September 30. A.J. Brown, who played one game and has 26 scrimmage yards, is also on injured reserve.
The Patriots' defense is short two starters against a run-heavy offense. Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and Christian Barmore (shoulder) are reported out. Dre'Mont Jones, Christian Elliss and Craig Woodson are questionable. Buffalo has 8 rushing touchdowns and 5 passing touchdowns, and James Cook has 62 touches and 362 scrimmage yards.
Josh Allen's knee is the largest swing. He was back at practice Wednesday and is listed questionable. If he plays, the market's read is closer to right. If he doesn't, the Bills' numbers above no longer describe the team New England faces. DJ Moore, Keon Coleman and Christian Benford are also questionable for Buffalo.
The books agree closely: spreads of 6.5 to 7 and Bills win probabilities of 72.58% to 74.49% after removing the vig. The gap to the 49.31% rating is the market pricing 2026 form and injuries, which the 2025 carryover rating cannot see.
Confidence: Medium. This leans Buffalo, since the rating is stale and three games from each side favor the Bills, but both samples are small and Buffalo's schedule was soft. Allen's status, or New England scoring more than 20 points for the first time this season, would change it.