Power Ratings Peg Browns as Week 1's Biggest Underdog, KC Barely Favored at Home
DataBaller's carried-over 2026 power ratings show Cleveland as an 8.68-point underdog at Jacksonville, while Kansas City is only a slim home favorite over Denver on rating alone.
Published: · Figures as of September 8, 2026
Asked: Who's getting exposed in Week 1?
Cleveland is the week's most exposed team, projected as an 8.68-point underdog at Jacksonville
Reading the NFL's Week 1 slate (September 9-14, 2026) through DataBaller's power ratings, four teams stand out as bigger long-shots than anyone else on the board, and one presumptive contender - Kansas City - is quietly not even favored in its own building.
Every number below comes from the same carried-over rating: nobody has played a 2026 game yet, so every team's power rating is last season's strength read forward at reduced confidence (0.5), dated September 7, 2026. Treat it as "how good this roster looked when 2025 ended," not a measurement of this year's team.
The four most lopsided games by expected margin:
- Browns at Jaguars - Jacksonville rated +4.10, Cleveland -3.23. Expected margin 8.68 points, Jacksonville a 78.0% favorite.
- Cardinals at Chargers - Los Angeles rated +1.40, Arizona -4.30. Expected margin 7.05 points, the Chargers a 73.7% favorite.
- Commanders at Eagles - Philadelphia rated +1.71, Washington -2.60. Expected margin 5.67 points, Philadelphia a 69.6% favorite.
- Saints at Lions - Detroit rated +1.25, New Orleans -2.49. Expected margin 5.1 points, Detroit a 67.8% favorite.
The more interesting exposure is Kansas City's. The Chiefs carry a rating of -0.048 - essentially a league-average team - against a Denver rating of +3.52, so the model actually has the Broncos as 2.21-point favorites on the road in Kansas City (58% win probability for Denver). Home field is the one thing keeping that game close; on the rating alone, Kansas City is the wrong side of a road underdog playing at home.
| Underdog (opponent) | Expected deficit (points) |
|---|---|
| CLE (at JAX) | 8.68 |
| ARI (at LAC) | 7.05 |
| WSH (at PHI) | 5.67 |
| NO (at DET) | 5.1 |
| SF (at LAR) | 3.84 |
| ATL (at PIT) | 2.35 |
| KC (home vs DEN) | 2.21 |
| LV (home vs MIA) | 2.04 |
| NE (at SEA) | 2.01 |
| CAR (home vs CHI) | 1.97 |
| NYJ (at TEN) | 1.2 |
| BAL (at IND) | 1.12 |
| BUF (at HOU) | 1.08 |
| NYG (home vs DAL) | 0.18 |
| MIN (home vs GB) | 0.15 |
| TB (at CIN) | 0.08 |
Everything else on the slate is close to a coin flip: Bengals-Buccaneers, Vikings-Packers and Giants-Cowboys all sit under a half-point of expected margin, and Titans-Jets is a near-even game only because both teams carry deeply negative ratings (-6.16 and -6.01), not because either looks strong.
No sportsbook lines were available for any of these games to check the market against the rating, so this read is the power rating on its own. Confidence: medium - the ratings are carried at 0.5 confidence with no 2026 games behind them yet, so a hot preseason storyline or a Week 1 injury could move any of these numbers once games are actually played.