Rays' 98-64 Record Fits Their Margins Better Than Tigers' 76-86
Tampa Bay outscored opponents by 86 runs and Detroit by 71, yet the Rays finished 22 wins ahead. The records and run margins show why neither matches its margins and why the Rays' record is the fairer one.
Published: · Figures as of October 3, 2026
Asked: Compare the Rays and Tigers this season. Which team's record gives a fairer picture of how they've played? \
Rays' record is fairer, but still 7.8 wins ahead of margins
The Rays' 98-64 record is the closer fit. It runs 7.8 wins ahead of the 90.2 wins their runs scored and allowed support, while the Tigers' 76-86 sits 12.6 wins behind the 88.6 their margins support. Neither record matches its margins, and the Tigers' is further off. These are 2026 regular-season numbers, so this is a look back, not a forecast.
The two teams scored and allowed nearly the same runs
The Rays finished 22 wins ahead of Detroit (98 against 76) on a run differential only 15 runs better (+86 against +71). Both faced about the same schedule, with opponents' win percentage at .497 for Tampa Bay and .496 for Detroit. DataBaller's Power Rating has the Tigers fractionally ahead, at 1.084 runs per game above an average opponent against 0.985 for the Rays.
| Rays | Tigers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 98-64 | 76-86 |
| Runs scored / allowed per game | 4.54 / 4.01 | 4.46 / 4.02 |
| Run differential | +86 | +71 |
| Wins their margins support | 90.2 | 88.6 |
| Record vs margins | 7.8 wins ahead | 12.6 wins behind |
| One-run games | 25-14 | 17-27 |
| Games decided by 4+ runs | 37-30 | 39-23 |
The gap sits in one-run games
Tampa Bay won 25 of 39 one-run games. Detroit won 17 of 44. Games decided by four or more runs go the other way: Detroit was 39-23 and Tampa Bay 37-30. Detroit's record shortfall comes from close games, not from being outplayed in lopsided ones.
A one-run record carries little from one stretch to the next. DataBaller's 2021 to 2025 data shows a rest-of-season rank correlation of about +0.21 for it, which is weak persistence. That is why the Rays' margin-based wins are the better read of their quality, and why the Tigers' close-game losses say little about how good Detroit was.
| Game number | Rays (runs) | Tigers (runs) |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0 | 12 |
| 36 | 15 | 17 |
| 54 | 27 | -25 |
| 72 | 8 | -6 |
| 90 | 36 | 11 |
| 108 | 43 | 39 |
| 126 | 49 | 83 |
| 144 | 53 | 51 |
| 162 | 86 | 71 |
| Game number | Rays (games) | Tigers (games) |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | 4 | 0 |
| 36 | 12 | 0 |
| 54 | 16 | -12 |
| 72 | 12 | -12 |
| 90 | 18 | -10 |
| 108 | 20 | -6 |
| 126 | 26 | -4 |
| 144 | 28 | -12 |
| 162 | 34 | -10 |
Through game 126 the Tigers' run differential climbed to +83, ahead of the Rays' +49. Their wins minus losses at that point was −4 against the Rays' +26. Detroit played like a winning team for most of the second half and the record never caught up, while Tampa Bay's record stayed ahead of its runs the whole way.