Scoring Shift board as of Oct. 3, 2026: Collin Sexton leads at +1.99 pts/game
DataBaller's Scoring Shift puts Collin Sexton first at +1.99 points a game, but the top eight sit between +1.65 and +1.99, so the order is not a clear ranking. The read applies last season's inputs and forecasts no games.
Published: · Figures as of October 3, 2026
Asked: Who does DataBaller's Scoring Shift expect to make the biggest scoring jump next NBA season?
Collin Sexton tops the Scoring Shift board at +1.99 points a game
The read forecasts no games, though. It was computed on October 3, 2026, 111 days after the last game on June 13, so it applies the formula to last season's inputs and says nothing about 2026-27. The board below holds only high-confidence reads, and the top eight sit between +1.65 and +1.99, so the order is not a clear ranking.
| Player (club filed now) | Predicted change, pts/game | Largest inputs, pts/game |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Sexton (Lakers) | +1.99 | Scoring above his half-year level +1.50 |
| Gary Trent Jr. (Bucks) | +1.97 | Minutes below his year-before-last level +0.56, minutes trend +0.47, scoring trend +0.38, efficiency +0.36 |
| Guerschon Yabusele (no club filed) | +1.81 | Scoring above his half-year level +1.18, efficiency +0.27 |
| Jordan Hawkins (Grizzlies) | +1.81 | Minutes below year-before-last +0.55, scoring trend +0.36, minutes trend +0.33 |
| K.J. Simpson (Nuggets) | +1.80 | Scoring above his half-year level +0.98, minutes below year-before-last +0.54 |
| Andre Jackson Jr. (Raptors) | +1.76 | Efficiency +0.47, minutes trend +0.39 |
| Jalen Wilson (Hawks) | +1.67 | Minutes below year-before-last +0.40, minutes trend +0.39, scoring trend +0.32 |
| D'Angelo Russell (Grizzlies) | +1.65 | Scoring above his half-year level +1.39 |
Every row also carries a shared baseline of +0.33 points a game.
Sexton's lead comes almost entirely from one input. His last 20 games ran from February 24 to April 12, 2026, and his scoring in them was above his half-year level. That input alone adds 1.50 of his 1.99. His minutes trend (+0.15) and scoring trend (+0.05) add little, and his efficiency term takes off 0.11.
Trent Jr., Hawkins and Wilson have a different profile. Their minutes last season were well below the year-before-last level, by 10.97, 10.73 and 7.67 minutes a game. The formula reads that gap as room to rise. It is a statement about the inputs, not about who finished hottest.
Two rows rest on thinner support. Simpson's 20-game window stretches back to November 2, 2025, and his half-year comparison covers only 8 games. Russell's window ended January 10, 2026, so his +1.39 momentum is the oldest form on the board, compared against only 5 games. Both are weaker readings than Sexton's or Trent's.
Confidence: Low. These are offseason rows with no games ahead of them, and the formula's in-season record says only that it leans toward who rises. The first in-season reads of 2026-27 would replace this board.