Week 1 Power Ratings: Jaguars Favored by 8.7 Over Browns, Biggest Gap on Board
Using 2025 season ratings carried into Week 1, the model projects Cleveland at Jacksonville as the slate's largest mismatch, with Arizona at the Chargers and Washington at Philadelphia also standing out as lopsided matchups.
Published: · Figures as of September 8, 2026
Asked: who's getting exposed in Week 1?
Cleveland is the biggest mismatch on the Week 1 board, projected as an 8.7-point underdog at Jacksonville
None of the 16 Week 1 games (Sept. 9–14) have been played yet, so this is what the stored power ratings say heading in, not what's happened. Every rating below is carried over from 2025 at 0.5 confidence — none has seen a 2026 game yet — so read these as last-year's team strength projected forward, not a fresh read.
Ranking the slate by expected margin, three visiting teams stand out as set up to be overmatched:
| Underdog (site) | Win probability (%) |
|---|---|
| CLE at JAX | 22.0 |
| ARI at LAC | 26.3 |
| WSH at PHI | 30.4 |
| NO at DET | 32.2 |
| SF at LAR | 36.4 |
- coin flip: 50 %
Cleveland at Jacksonville is the largest gap on the board: an expected margin of 8.68 points and a 78.0% win probability for the Jaguars. The ratings match what each team actually did last year — Jacksonville went 13-4, outscored teams 474-336, and finished 4th in the league by record; Cleveland went 5-12, was outscored 279-379, and finished 26th. Jacksonville's rating (4.10) and Cleveland's (-3.23) are both 2025 carryovers.
Arizona at the Chargers is next, a 7.05-point expected margin and a 73.7% win probability for LA. Arizona was 3-14 last season and allowed 488 points, the league's 29th-ranked record; the Chargers went 11-6 and outscored opponents by 28 on the year (9th in the league). Arizona's -4.30 rating is among the lowest on the entire board.
Washington at Philadelphia rounds out the group: a 5.67-point margin and 69.6% for the Eagles. Washington was 5-12 and got outscored by 95 points (356-451) a year ago; Philadelphia went 11-6 with a +54 differential.
Two more with real separation, if not quite as stark: New Orleans at Detroit (5.1 points, Lions 67.8%) and San Francisco at the Rams (3.84 points, Rams 63.6%).
One score worth flagging in the other direction: at Kansas City, the model actually favors the visiting Broncos, by 2.21 points (58.0% win probability) despite the Chiefs hosting. Denver's rating (3.52) sits above Kansas City's (-0.05) purely off last year's record and margins.
Confidence: Low to Medium on all of this — every number here is a 2025 result and record carried forward at the model's baseline (0.5) confidence, before a single 2026 snap. The backtested claim behind the rating is only that this blend of record and capped point margin prices games modestly better than record alone; it's not a guarantee for any single matchup, and a real roster change, an injury, or just early-season variance can move any of these numbers once games start.