Bears' Defense Is a Real Concern, But Cubs' Pitching Isn't a Flaw

One week of Bears football doesn't prove a defensive crisis, but last season's numbers do. Meanwhile, the Cubs' run prevention is right at league average — it's the offense driving their record.

Published: September 14, 2026 · Figures as of September 14, 2026

Asked: So are the Bears good or is their defense a huge flaw like the Cubs’ pitching?

Bears' defense is a real question, but one game doesn't answer it - and no, Cubs' pitching isn't a flaw

Quick gut-check on the premise: Chicago's defense has a legitimate track record of being below average, but calling it "huge" off one week overstates it. The Cubs half of the comparison doesn't hold up at all - their run prevention is almost exactly league average, not a flaw.

The Bears. Their only 2026 game was a 59-37 win over Carolina - 37 points allowed ranks 25th of the 28 teams with a game in the book, against a league-wide average of 25.1 points allowed per game this early (population spread is still huge, an 11.5-point standard deviation with one game per team, so that gap is about one standard deviation, not an outlier). One game, in a league where scoring defense also reflects special teams and turnovers, isn't enough to call anything a crisis. The more solid evidence is last season: a full 17-game sample where Chicago allowed 24.4 points per game, 23rd of 32 teams - a real, below-average defense over a real sample, not a one-week fluke.

DataBaller's power rating (v2), still carried over from 2025 at 0.5 confidence since the current season is one game old, has Chicago at +1.3 points against an average opponent on a neutral field - a modestly above-average team, full stop; the rating doesn't split into offense or defense. The team-sustainability read (v1) says last year's 11-6 record actually ran about 1.9 wins ahead of what the scoring margins supported, but that gap sits inside one standard deviation of the league - "in line," not a red flag either way.

The Cubs. This is the part of the question that doesn't survive contact with the numbers. Chicago's run prevention - pitching and defense together, not pitching in isolation - sits at 4.44 runs allowed per game, 13th of 30 teams, essentially on top of the league average of 4.50. That's a middle-of-the-pack unit, not a "huge flaw." What actually built the 83-66 record is the offense: 5.33 runs scored per game and a +0.92 run differential per game. The power rating (v2, in-season, full confidence) puts their margin contribution from scoring (13.3) above their margin contribution from run prevention (11.2) - the model's own read leans on the bats, not the arms. And team sustainability (v1) actually shows the Cubs' record running about 4.4 wins below what their scoring margins support - if anything, they've been slightly unlucky, the opposite of a team getting bailed out by a units problem.

Bottom line: the Bears' defense is a plausible worry rooted in a full season of below-average results, but this year's data point (one shootout win) isn't the evidence for it - medium confidence, mostly because the sample is still tiny and the power rating itself is only half-confident, being carried over from last year. The Cubs' comparison doesn't work as a "huge flaw": their run prevention is average, and their record is actually running a bit behind what their scoring margins say it should be - high confidence, off a 150-game sample against the full league.