The 2025 Bears: 11-6 and a division title on a +1.5-point scoring margin
Chicago won the NFC North at 11-6, but outscored opponents by only 1.5 points a game, with an above-average offense and a below-average defense. The record ran ahead of the margins, and the playoff run ended with a 17-20 loss to the Rams.
Published: · Figures as of October 3, 2026
Asked: What does Chicago's 2025 performance tell us about how strong the Bears were?
The 2025 Bears were good, not great: 11-6 on a +1.5 point margin
Chicago went 11-6 in the 2025 regular season, ninth in the league by win percentage and first in the NFC North. Its scoring margin was only +1.5 points a game (441 scored, 415 allowed), which is the profile of a solid team, not a top one.
The record ran ahead of the margins. DataBaller's Team Sustainability puts the 11-6 record 1.9 wins ahead of what the scoring supports. That sits inside the band where no fallback is expected, so the read is "in line" and carries no warning. Still, a .647 record on margins that imply a .536 record means some of the wins came from close games going Chicago's way. DataBaller's Power Rating, carried forward from 2025 as of October 2, 2026, has the Bears at +1.3 points against an average opponent on a neutral field (Medium confidence). That is above average, and well short of an elite team.
The offense was above average and the defense was not. Chicago scored 25.9 points a game against a league average of 23.0, and allowed 24.4. League average allowed equals league average scored, so the defense was 1.4 points a game worse than average. The 2025 season produced 35 sacks, led by Montez Sweat's 10, and the team gave the ball away 11 times. Caleb Williams started all 17 games with 3,942 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. D'Andre Swift added 1,386 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns.
| Game date | Bears scored (points) | Bears allowed (points) |
|---|---|---|
| 9/8 | 24 | 27 |
| 9/14 | 21 | 52 |
| 9/21 | 31 | 14 |
| 9/28 | 25 | 24 |
| 10/13 | 25 | 24 |
| 10/19 | 26 | 14 |
| 10/26 | 16 | 30 |
| 11/2 | 47 | 42 |
| 11/9 | 24 | 20 |
| 11/16 | 19 | 17 |
| 11/23 | 31 | 28 |
| 11/28 | 24 | 15 |
| 12/7 | 21 | 28 |
| 12/14 | 31 | 3 |
| 12/20 | 22 | 16 |
| 12/28 | 38 | 42 |
| 1/4 | 16 | 19 |
- league average points per game: 23.0 points
The games were volatile and many were tight. The Bears lost 21-52 to Detroit in Week 2 and beat Cleveland 31-3 in Week 15. They won 25-24 over both Las Vegas and Washington, and 19-17 over Minnesota in November. They closed the regular season 1-2, losing 38-42 at San Francisco and 16-19 to Detroit. That cost them nothing in the standings, since the division was already won.
The playoff run ended in a 3-point loss. Chicago beat Green Bay 31-27 in the wild-card round, then lost 17-20 to the Rams. Across those two games they scored 48 points and allowed 47.
Confidence: Medium. A 17-game margin of +1.5 points a game is a small sample, and it is not adjusted for opponent strength. An opponent-adjusted margin would move this read.