Dodgers' Last 15 Games: Offense Surged, Pitching Gain Mostly Schedule
Comparing the Dodgers' last 15 games to the 15 before reveals an identical 10-5 record but a different story: schedule-adjusted numbers show the offense's improvement was real and larger than raw stats suggest, while the modest pitching gain was mostly due to a softer slate of opponents.
Published: · Figures as of September 12, 2026
Asked: How did the Dodgers play over their last 15 games compared with the 15 before? What changed most?
The offense's gain is real and understated by the raw numbers; the pitching gain mostly isn't
Over the last 15 games (August 26 – September 11, 10-5) the Dodgers scored 5.20 runs a game and allowed 3.67. Over the 15 before that (August 9–25, also 10-5) they scored 4.47 and allowed 3.80. Same record both stretches — what changed is how they got there and against whom.
Record shape flipped even though the record didn't. The prior 15 were a mixed bag (10-4 before a loss to close it); this window opened 2-5 before an 8-game winning streak that is still running through last night's win at Miami.
Offense: the +0.73 runs/game gain undersells it. The schedule got tougher for hitting — this window's opponents normally allow 4.45 runs a game coming in, against 4.63 for the prior window's opponents (better pitching staffs, on average). Adjusted for that, the offensive jump is actually larger, +0.91 runs a game, not smaller. The Reds series carried most of it: 23 runs in 3 games against a staff that normally allows 4.8, a gap of +2.87 runs/game above expectation.
Run prevention: the -0.13 runs/game "improvement" is mostly schedule, not pitching. The opponents faced this window score 4.54 a game on average coming in, versus 4.78 for the prior window's group — a softer slate for the defense. Adjusted for that, run prevention barely moved (+0.11 in the worse direction), essentially flat. The two series inside the window that drove the raw number were the Tigers (allowed just 4 runs in 3 games, 3.15 runs/game better than expected) and the Cardinals (allowed 23 in 3 games, 3.25 runs/game worse than expected) — those roughly offset, and it's really the Reds sweep (allowed 6 in 3) doing the heavy lifting on the raw average.
| Window | Runs scored (runs per game) | Runs allowed (runs per game) |
|---|---|---|
| Last 15 | 5.2 | 3.67 |
| Prior 15 | 4.47 | 3.8 |
So what changed most, once you account for who they played: the bats, not the arms. The offense produced meaningfully more against a harder schedule; the defense/pitching's modest raw gain is largely explained by a softer schedule rather than by the unit actually pitching or fielding better. Confidence: High on the direction of both reads — they're consistent across the raw and schedule-adjusted numbers — though 15-game samples (and a 3-game Reds sweep skewing the offensive gain) are still fairly small for either claim to be called settled.