Fact-check: Heat's Larsson wasn't 4th in offensive efficiency, per TS% data
A report on Larsson's new deal correctly notes his scoring jump and minutes rank, but his offensive-efficiency ranking is off — TS% data puts him 3rd or 6th on the Heat, not 4th.
Published: · Figures as of September 20, 2026
Asked: shams says: "Larsson has become a foundation piece for the Heat amid their offseason overhaul after being a second-round find in the 2024 draft, and now two seasons into his career the 6-foot-5 guard avoids restricted free agency next summer and locks in a new deal with a mutual option that fully guarantees $60 million while allowing either side to opt-in on 2030. The Heat are set to have a major rotation role for Larsson, who averaged 11.4 points per game last season, up nearly 7 points per game from his rookie season. He also ranked fourth-best in offensive efficiency in Miami, per ESPN Research, and fifth in minutes played." comment?
Larsson's scoring jump checks out; the "fourth in efficiency" ranking doesn't
The verifiable numbers in the report mostly hold up, but the offensive-efficiency ranking is off by at least two spots, and the contract terms aren't something we can check at all.
Scoring growth: Larsson averaged 11.4 points per game last season (2025-2026), up from 4.6 as a rookie in 2024-2025 — a gain of about 6.8 points per game, which is fairly described as "up nearly 7." Both figures come off 70 and 54 games played respectively, so it's not a partial-sample artifact.
Minutes rank: He ranked 5th on the Heat in total minutes last season (1,849), behind Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell. That part is accurate on total minutes played. On a per-game basis he actually slides to 6th (26.4 MPG), passed by Norman Powell's 29.6 despite Powell's shorter season, so "fifth in minutes" only holds under the total-minutes reading, not the per-game one.
Offensive efficiency rank — the part that doesn't hold up: Using true shooting percentage, the season's actual efficiency measure, Larsson isn't 4th on the team. Applying the NBA's standard games-played qualifier (58 of 82 games), he ranks 3rd on the Heat at 60.5% TS, behind only Kel'el Ware (61.6%) and Norman Powell (60.9%). Include every player who saw the floor at all, with no games floor, and he actually drops to 6th, passed additionally by Kasparas Jakučionis and Myron Gardner on limited minutes. Neither cut of the data puts him at 4th.
| Player | TS% (%) |
|---|---|
| Ware | 61.6 |
| Powell | 60.9 |
| Larsson | 60.5 |
| Wiggins | 58.6 |
| Mitchell | 58.2 |
| Fontecchio | 57.9 |
| Jaquez | 57.0 |
| Adebayo | 55.1 |
| Smith | 53.2 |
What I can't verify at all: the contract structure — a $60 million guarantee, a mutual option for 2030, avoiding restricted free agency — isn't something we hold; there's no salary or contract data in what I can check, so I can't confirm or dispute those terms. Same for his draft slot (second round, 2024): draft-position data isn't something I have on file either.
Confidence: High on the scoring and minutes claims, which check out cleanly against the season totals. Low on "fourth-best in offensive efficiency" — the data puts him 3rd among qualified Heat players or 6th including everyone who played, but not 4th under either reading.